We have three core programmes:
1. CHINA’S INFLUENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY
As the twenty first century progresses, Western countries must be prepared for the growing possibility of decoupling from China, and the implications this will have for their economies and societies as well as the international rules-based order. Such effects are already being felt in areas as diverse as finance, defence, academia, and in multilateral organisations. China’s influence has direct implications for other countries’ national security, but Western countries remain underprepared for the far-reaching effects of a potential split with China over geopolitical flashpoints such as Taiwan.
The Evenstar Institute’s China Influence and National Security research programme exists to help governments and companies understand and plan for this changing relationship with China. Our unique China Influence Index provides sector-leading analytical models and a bespoke dataset which offers unparalleled insights into the nature of China’s influence around the world, and its implications.
The China Influence Index allows us to answer specific research questions concerning China’s influence which offer empirical assessments, explanations, and policy recommendations on topics including:
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Economic dependency
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Digital infrastructure and technology
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Defence and security
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Education and academia
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Critical national infrastructure projects
2. MACRO SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE
China, accounting for 30% of global manufacturing output, is at the centre of the world’s supply chains. Western countries and companies are invariably exposed directly and indirectly to Beijing, and as relations between China and the West deteriorate, this exposure becomes a threat to national and corporate resilience.
The Evenstar Institute measures and understands the direct and indirect exposure of countries and companies to China through their supply chains, and uses this information to build resilience to that exposure. Drawing on our China Influence Index, combined with a holistic approach to supply chains covering physical, financial, technological, and human factors, we are able to answer specific questions regarding risks, the potential for building resilience, and opportunities.
Research topics include:
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Critical minerals
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Semiconductors
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Pharmaceuticals
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Logistics infrastructure and technology
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Manufacturing
3. COMPARATIVE NATIONAL INFLUENCE
We use our proprietary influence models to measure and understand the comparative influence of countries around the world, for example the influence of China versus the US in Southeast Asia or Europe. Our research helps policy makers and corporate strategists to understand the reality of a country’s influence on the ground.
Example research questions include:
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Understanding how a country’s alignment may stand or change in the wake of geopolitical and geoeconomics tensions
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Assessing the likelihood of political opposition for macro investment decisions
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Understanding the threat to national and corporate relationships due to geopolitical challenges
ABOUT THE CHINA INFLUENCE INDEX
The Evenstar Institute’s China Influence Index uses proprietary models to measure and understand the global influence of the People’s Republic of China, and its impact on the international rules-based order. This is focused on questions of national security and resilience.
We use a wide range of quantitative and qualitative indicators to capture influence in nine different domains, for example Finance, Trade, and Investment, Defence and Security, and Critical National Infrastructure. Through this, we understand and explain patterns of influence, how they evolve, and how they impact a country’s autonomy.
The influence model uses an absolute measure based on national autonomy, which allows for accurate comparisons of influence across small and large states, from Small Island Developing States to major developed nations.